เกาหลีใต้อาจจะซื้่อ F-15K เพิ่มอีก 20 ลำ หรืออาจะตัดสินใจเปลี่ยนไปซื้อ F-35 แทน

South Korea to Buy Another 20 F-15K Fighters?

Strike Eagle w. SLAM-ERs
(click to view full)

Back in 2002, the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) selected the F-15K advanced derivative of the F-15E Strike Eagle for its Next Generation Fighter Program. Under that $3.6 billion contract, Boeing will deliver 40 aircraft to the ROKAF beginning this year and ending in August 2008. South Korea's 2-seat F-15K Strike Eagles will be the first F-15s produced with the GE F110 engine common on many US F-16C/D aircraft, and will also carry the SLAM-ER missile as their medium-range precision strike weapon. They will not be equipped with the AESA radars found on some US F-15Cs and Singapore's forthcoming F-15SGs, however, relying instead on the standard AN/APG-63(v1) radars that equip most Strike Eagles in service around the world. See this RealVideo clip of the first F-15K in flight.

In May 2006, the Korean Overseas Information Service said that the ROKAF would purchase another 20 F-15K multi-role aircraft beginning in 2009 - but that report has since been qualified, and a subsequent report says that South Korea may be examining the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter instead. What's going on? DID may be able to clarify...

The ROKAF originally planned to buy 120 F-15Ks as its next-generation platform in order to replace its existing fleet of F-4 Phantom IIs and other aircraft. They had reportedly hoped to order another 40 this time around and bring their fleet to 80 aircraft in Phase 2, but had to settle for 20.

According to the May 2006 report, The $2+ billion plan was approved during a defense ministry meeting as part of its mid-term arms acquisition project between 2007 and 2011. President Roh Moo-hyun will be required to endorse the plan, but this is deemed very likely. If so it would extend the F-15's production line until mid-2011, giving Singapore up to two more years to decide whether to exercise its option for 8 more F-15SGs.

F-35A head-on
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According to the Korean Overseas Information Service's November 1, 2006 report, however, "a winning model has not been decided yet" in the F-X Phase 2 program to secure an additional 20 "F-15 fighter-level" jets at a cost of 2.3 trillion won ($2.3 billion) "to strengthen [South Korea's] air defense capabilities."

The report added that Lt. Gen. Kim Eun-ki, deputy chief of the ROK Air Force, recently appeared before a parliamentary hearing and discussed the proposed buy. A ruling party lawmaker pressed for the purchase of the F-35 instead, citing its greater stealth capabilities and claiming that its price is only 60% of the $105 million each F-15K costs.

"Right now, orders for F-35s are enormous, so it will be possible for us to buy and deploy them only after 2010," replied Lt. Gen. Kim Eun-Ki.

In other words, the exchange doesn't mean what the KOIS headline would lead you to believe. Leaving aside questions about the F-35's air to air performance, even that stated 2010 deployment time is beyond optimistic. Official program timelines have the JSF system design & development phase extending to 2013, and full rate production is unlikely to begin before 2015. Even the least-risky F-35A is not going to meet the ROKAF's needs in the 2007-2011 timeline.

As an aside, it should also be noted that buying a jet during low-rate production is also considerably more expensive. The F-35A may have a target price of around $45-50 million, but that's to be an average over total production. Buying one during low-rate initial production has been estimated to cost $100-115 million, with the price declining rapidly once full-rate production is reached. Smaller declines tend to follow over time as full-rate production is sustained and refined.

These factors make a Phase 2 ROKAF buy of F-35A Lightning II aircraft almost inconceivable for the 2007-2011 time frame; rather than opening the issue up for consideration, Lt. Gen. Kim Eun-Ki appears to have been saying "no" in an innocuous way. Having said that, the F-35 Lightning II may still have potential as a future ROKAF platform.

Flight International reports that Seoul will decide over the next few years whether or not to buy a third batch of F-15Ks, or move forward with a separate F-X fighter programme now under study. A $2 billion package of upgrades to its current fleet of Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters is also being considered.

If there is a Phase 3 buy beyond 2011, the F-35 Lightning II could be a realistic contender by then. It is unlikely to be an uncontested contender, however. The November 1, 2006 KOIS article also discusses the sentiment within Korea to diversify their defense sources - which means the F-35 would be likely to face competition from similarly-priced modernized versions of current aircraft in that price range such as the JAS-39 Gripen, Dassault Rafale (which lost to the F-15K, but has more growth upside if updates can be sustained), or even Russian/Chinese variants of the SU-30 Flanker family that have become so popular in the region (except for North Korea, who doesn't have any).

The winner, as always, would be based on a combination of the stated requirements, how well each aircraft's strengths and weaknesses fit those needs, standardization and support considerations, and of course the international commercial-political pressures involved.