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Chinas Potential Anti-Satellite Test Sparks US Concern

Reports that China may be on the verge of carrying out another anti-satellite test soon are ringing alarm bells among U.S. space policy and military analysts.

That “strong possibility” was noted by Gregory Kulacki, senior analyst and China project manager for the Union of Concerned

Scientists Global Security Program, in a Jan. 4 posting on the UCS website blog, All Things Nuclear - Insights on Science and Security.

“It is not clear what kind of test may be planned, if indeed one is in the works,” Kulacki wrote.

Kulacki flagged the fact that, for several months, rumors have been circulating within the United States defense and intelligence communities that a Chinese anti-satellite test is imminent. It might be conducted on Jan. 11, the date on which China performed ASAT operations in both 2007 and 2010.

“Our hope is that getting this out in the open can facilitate a meaningful bilateral dialogue on space security, or, at the very least, get the Obama administration to explain why it refuses to talk to the Chinese about their plans to test,” Kulacki told SPACE.com.

If indeed a China ASAT test is on the horizon, what about potential U.S. reaction? SPACE.com asked several experts to comment on this prospect:

What type of target?

“The condemnation that accompanied China’s first ASAT test was more because of the debris it created, not because it was an ASAT test. The second ‘ASAT test’ hardly sparked a ripple,” said Marcia Smith, a respected space policy analyst and editor of SpacePolicyOnline.com. [10 Most Destructive Space Weapon Concepts]

“I think the reaction to the next one, whenever it is, will depend on what type of target (low-Earth orbit, medium-Earth orbit — e.g. Global Positioning System satellites) it threatens and whether it is conducted to avoid creating long-lived debris,” Smith said.

This all assumes that, if it is targeted against a satellite, it is one of China’s own satellites,” Smith said. “If there is any inkling that it is aimed at another country’s satellite…that, of course, would be an entirely different matter.”

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is concerned about Chinas expanding ability to disrupt the most sensitive U.S. military and intelligence satellites, as Beijing pursues its expanded ambitions in space, according to multiple sources in the U.S. government and outside space experts.

A classified U.S. intelligence assessment completed late last year analyzed Chinas increasing activities in space and mapped out the growing vulnerability of U.S. satellites that provide secure military communications, warn about enemy missile launches and provide precise targeting coordinates, said the sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly.

"It was a very credible and sobering assessment that is now provoking a lot of activities in different quarters," said one former government official who is familiar with U.S. national security satellite programs.

The intelligence report raised red flags about Beijings ability to disrupt satellites in higher orbits, which could put the most sensitive U.S. spacecraft at risk, according to the sources. China has already conducted several anti-satellite tests at lower orbital levels in recent years.

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http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-space-activities-raising-u-satellite-security-concerns-061300435.html